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Thursday, May 28, 2015

A look back at the 2014 Midterms, and what it may mean for 2016

When the 2014 midterm election results came in, I was excited, at first. I started to have hope for the party again, and I thought maybe young people, single women, and minorities were finally starting to see through the leftist shenanigans. But then I thought, wait a second, we have seen this before in 2010 and 1994, and conservatives still lost the following presidential election. So what really happened? Was there a fundamental shift to the right in 2014? And what does it mean for 2016? 

 Although there were some important victories in 2014, and some key upsets in blue states, sadly, there is no fundamental shift to the right in this country. When you look at the numbers, there was a small migration to the right among over 40 voters, but really nothing has changed in the under 40 crowd. It is very bad news for our party when those who have been hardest hit by this endless recession, still haven't seen the light. Also, the overall turnout for the election was low, and it's is too difficult to judge, for example, the strength of a baseball team, when only half of the players show up. 

Just because the Democrats occasionally get lazy in the midterms, doesn't mean there is something fundamentally changing for the better in your party. Don't be fooled; the team is just as weak as it was before. Let's look at the state of Kentucky, for example. Kentucky is 87 percent white, they like guns, have many rural areas; yet Kentucky is 57 percent Democrat and 37 percent Republican (according to Wikipedia). yes Houston, you could say we have a problem-a big problem. 

What we need to win in 2016 is a truly transformational candidate. We need someone with mass appeal as well as someone who can articulate and defend conservatism. Two butt-ass white guys from the Midwest (as we had in 2012) are not going to cut it. Don't get me wrong, I love Romney and I have been rooting for him since 2008, but he isn't going to win choosing another milk toast white guy as a running mate. I believe Romney/Rubio would have been a much better choice, but still probably would have fallen short. 

 It is clear we have a lot of ground to gain to achieve the massive shift needed to win. The same old formula is not going to work. Will it take a celebrity like Donald Trump, Howard Stern, Rob Lowe, or Jesse Ventura to win? I don't exactly like that idea, but it may be necessary. Will it take an Independent or Libertarian outsider like Rand Paul, that have some appeal among Millenials and Democrats? Possibly. I still like Romney/Rubio, if he decides to run; but they will have to do a knock it out of the park campaign to have a chance of winning. Scott Walker? I love him. HE is very in-line with my politics and and a strong record of governing...but still another butt-ass white guy from the Midwest. Ronald Reagan was someone with broad based appeal, and not just an actor and great speaker; he was a serious scholar of conservatism, cultivating knowledge and arguments over a number of years. Do the candidates of today have all that? And even if we do get
someone like Reagan, would that formula even still work today? 
What I am sure of is that the Democrats will be out to support their candidate in 2016, and they will be as hard to beat as ever. They will have the slick marketing, the money, and various media avenues on their side. Not to mention celebrities and many big corporate big wigs. Having QE unlimited and welfare dollars won't hurt either. 

The bottom line is I expect 2016 to be a repeat of 2012. The Republicans will come up with nothing significantly new or revolutionary. No one will likely have mass appeal and get crossover voters in the numbers needed to gain massive ground. Even if Hillary is knocked out by a litany of scandals, I ask you not to underestimate Elizabeth Warren. A no-namer with no experience beat the establishment Democrats and Republicans in 2008, and it can happen again. These days, it is not enough to attack someone on just their liberal politics anymore because liberals win, and they are popular. Liberals can win by default, unless something is discovered seriously wrong or scandalous about them. Slowly, people are waking up to the destruction of leftist ideology, but I feel it will be too little to late this time around. 

So Unless Taylor Swift comes out as Republican, Magically turns 35, and runs for president in 2016; I would expect no savior to come along and rescue us from another long bout of Democratic hell. Thus here is what you do next election day: fix yourself a stiff drink (or five), hold your nose, and watch that donkey cross the finish line. 


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