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Monday, September 7, 2015

Labor Day Look at the 2016 General Election For President


In an election for President of the United States, today, Labor Day, business provocateur Donald Trump narrowly defeats Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Al Gore, in head-to-head matchups, according to nationwide polling conducted by SurveyUSA.
Today it's:
Trump 45%, Clinton 40%. (There is a 20-point Gender Gap; Trump leads by 18 points among seniors.)
Trump 44%, Sanders 40%. (Trump leads by 10 among independents and by 6 among moderates.)
Trump 44%, Biden 42%. (Trump leads by 10 among the best educated; Biden leads by 17 among the least educated.)
Trump 44%, Gore 41%. (Trump leads by 12 among men and by 18 among voters age 50+.)

Among a subset of registered voters who tell SurveyUSA that they pay "a lot" of attention to politics, the scale tilts to the right: Today it's:
Trump 54%, Clinton 36%.
Trump 53%, Sanders 39%.
Trump 53%, Biden 37%.
Trump 54%, Gore 36%.

Voters were asked whether they support a given Democrat "enthusiastically," "with reservations," or, whether they are "holding their nose" voting for a particular candidate.
57% of Clinton voters say they are voting enthusiastically.
53% of Sanders voters say they are voting enthusiastically.
49% of Biden backers say they are voting enthusiastically.
45% of Gore voters say they are voting enthusiastically.

By contrast:

8% of Clinton supporters say they are holding their nose.
8% of Sanders voters say they are holding their nose.
9% of Biden voters say they are holding their nose.
12% of Gore voters say they are holding their nose.

Voters were asked, regardless of whether they were Democrats or Republicans, and regardless of whom they might vote for in a primary, who they thought would be the major party nominees. Today, Labor Day, voters handicap the primary contests this way:
44% say Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee.
22% say Biden will be the nominee.
14% say Sanders will be the nominee.
3% say Gore.
9% say someone else.
30% say Trump will be the Republican party nominee.
20% say Jeb Bush will the the GOP nominee.
14% say Ben Carson will be the GOP nominee.
6% say Ted Cruz will be the nominee.
4% say Marco Rubio will be the nominee.
4% say John Kasich will be the nominee.
3% say Carly Fiorina will be the nominee.
2% say Scott Walker will be the nominee.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this survey. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 USA adults 09/02/15 and 09/03/15. Of the adults, 900 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 58% (522) pay "a lot" of attention to politics. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home (landline) telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a question on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Cell respondents, as is typically the case, vote more Democratic than do landline respondents. Among just the universe of cell-phone respondents, Clinton defeats Trump by 16 points; Sanders defeats Trump by 12 points; Biden defeats Trump by 17 points; and Gore defeats Trump by 17 points. The more cell-phone respondents a pollster includes in its "mix" of voters, the more Democratic the poll results will be.