Busted! Utah poll showing Cruz ahead at 50% is fake
Poller's name is Scott Riding who works for Y2 Analytics and is an associate of Jeb Bush. Y2 Analytics conducted the most recent poll on Utah which shows Cruz up by more than 50%.
As reported by varight.com: Utah is a “winner take all” state, but only if one candidate gets more than 50%. Otherwise, the delegates are split proportionally. And they are split evenly among the candidates who receive more than 15%. With the winner getting the benefit of the rounding.
So if Cruz gets >50%, he will win all 40 delegates. However, if he does not hit the 50% mark, the delegates are evenly divided among all of the candidates with at least 15% of the total. Which means if Cruz gets 49% and Trump gets 15% and Kasich comes in somewhere in between, Cruz will get 14 delegates and Trump and Kasich will get 13 delegates each.
Strange how this poll places Cruz above the magic 50% mark and Trump below the 15% threshold.
I believe we are looking at the 14-13-13 split as all three get above 15% and no one reaches 50%.
Y2 Analytics is, by my research, a partisan polling outfit that was with Jeb Bush until he quit. And there is evidence that they are both Anti-Trump and pro Cruz. It cannot be determined if they were paid to conduct this poll, what the internal data was, how the poll was weighted, what areas were called, etc. etc.
Full story @ (Link: www.varight.com)